Kamala And Trump In Statistical Dead Heat As Favorability Spikes For Both

 Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are in a dead heat in the 2024 presidential race, according to a new national poll of likely general election voters.

The poll, conducted by Cygnal from August 6-8 of 1,500 expected general election voters, shows Trump and Harris in a statistical tie. In a head-to-head match up, Harris has 47.6% of the vote to Trump’s 47% — with 5.5% of voters saying they were undecided. In a full ballot that includes candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West, Trump got 44.4% and Harris earned 44.2%.

“After one of the wildest six weeks of American politics, we find ourselves back at more of a stasis,” said Cygnal pollster Chris Lane. “The idea that Kamala Harris came into this race and Independents and moderates stumbled over each other to support her is simply not the case.”

Lane said that the tightening up of the race was primarily due to President Joe Biden dropping out.

“The truth is traditional Democrat voters simply started to indicate they are going to vote for the Democratic Presidential candidate, a not so shocking revelation,” he said. “Biden had such a low floor that it was hard to believe that could last.”

The poll also found that more voters trust Trump on issues of illegal immigration, inflation and cost of living, and economy and jobs. Among independents, Trump was favored by 18 points on immigration, seven points on inflation, and six points on the economy.

Overall, the top issues for voters were inflation and the economy, illegal immigration, and “threats to democracy.”

 

The poll found that Harris also appeared to be having trouble solidifying support among people who voted for Biden in 2020.

“At the same time, Harris faces challenges solidifying her support with 13 percent of 2020 Biden voters saying they do not consider themselves part of her base and a whopping 71 percent of likely voters perceiving Harris as ‘liberal’ versus only 15 percent who view her as ‘moderate,’” he said. “That label will push away Independent voters while Trump maintains the edge on the issues voters care about most – the economy, cost of living, and illegal immigration.”

Both Harris and Trump have improved their favorability, with the Republican nominee’s favorability now sitting at 46% with 52% unfavorable and Harris jumping up 20 points since early July to a 47% favorability rating and 50% unfavorable rating.

The election is expected to come down to several battleground states where Trump held solid leads against Biden though Harris has narrowed the gap.